Debt Talk and Corporate Bond Pricing: Evidence from Earnings Calls

Abstract

We show that debt discussion in earnings calls is linked to corporate bond credit spreads. A one-standard-deviation increase in debt talk is associated with roughly 13 basis points of subsequent spread widening, an association that is about twice as large for speculative-grade bonds and firms with high informational asymmetry, and that also varies with the covenant protection embedded in the bond contract. Debt talk further predicts deterioration in subsequent default risk, bond liquidity, equity volatility, and profitability, consistent with an incremental, forward-looking disclosure channel. Decomposing debt talk shows that credit-risk language drives most of the result, liquidity and leverage language add independent predictive power, and leverage matters mainly when it coincides with liquidity discussion. Prepared remarks carry the strongest association, but analyst Q&A and the tone of debt talk each add incremental information beyond volume alone.

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